Number Crunching

Traveling to New Haven

A SLE round trip ticket to New Haven costs $16.50.
An Amtrak round trip ticket to New Haven costs $43-$56.
By car, the 100 mile round trip to New Haven costs $59.
(using the IRS automobile deduction rate of $.585 per mile)

Proposed Costs to Expand Shore Line East (from “Expanding Rail Service on Shore Line East”)

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Cost of Implementing Phase Two - Shore Line East to New London

The DOT’s Shore Line East report estimates that implementation of Phase Two, which extends SLE service to New London, will cost $19.8 million in Capital Expenses and $3.62 million in annual Net Operating Expenses. While the report provides little supporting rationale for the cost estimates, a few observations can be made.

Capital Expenses
$6 million of the $19.8 million is for a 500 space parking facility. The report does not identify which station would get that parking facility but it is not New London. In fact, extending SLE to New London would eliminate the need to spend additional money on new parking spaces in that the existing 1400 spaces in the NL parking garages can accommodate the 200-250 spaces needed for SLE passengers as well as reduce the current parking crisis at the Old Saybrook and New Haven stations. Many southeastern CT travelers will no longer have to journey down I-95 to catch a commuter train at either of those stations. This savings of approximately $300,000 in annual borrowing costs ($6 million at 5% equals $300,000) could be used to subsidize SLE passenger parking in New London, putting New London SLE passengers on an equal footing with all the other SLE stations.

The $13 million budgeted for new rolling stock ($5 million for a locomotive; $8 million for 4 cars) is part of a larger 380 unit MetroNorth/SLE order placed two years ago. The State has already taken possession of the cars. Therefore, stopping the implementation of SLE service to NL would not save $13 million.

The $800,000 allotted for a maintenance facility is less than 1/1000th of the $1.3 billion estimated cost of the maintenance facility planned for the New Haven rail yards. Frankly, we have no idea whether that estimate is realistic, or pertinent, to the opening of a SLE station in New London.

Operating Expenses
There is no Operating Expense budgeted for station maintenance in Phase Two despite the fact that 156 new and additional trains will be arriving and departing from Union Station weekly. This is in contrast to DOT station maintenance budget increases of $250,000 in Phase One and $300,000 in Phase Three.

Ridership estimates, and therefore revenue estimates, are surprisingly low and assume only 75 additional passengers per day will use the increased service. In other words, New London ridership estimates are less than 2/3 the ridership level of the smallest SLE station (Westbrook - 135 passengers per day). The average SLE station handles 313 passengers per day. By way of comparison, New London’s Union Station is Amtrak’s third busiest station in Connecticut, behind New Haven and Stamford.

Increasing the costs by $150,000 for station maintenance and calculating New London ridership at 80% of an average SLE station reduces the operating deficit estimate from $3.62 million to $2.6 million.

Farebox Recovery Rates

All public transportation is subsidized with public funds. Whether it is trains, planes, buses, ferries or automobiles, the government uses tax dollars to underwrite the cost of building and operating the nation’s public transportation infrastructure.

The Farebox Recovery Rate (FRR) is a commonly used metric for measuring the amount of operating income generated compared with the operating expenses. Despite its reputation, Amtrak has one of the highest FRRs at 70%. A typical commuter line FRR is 20-40%. MetroNorth’s FRR of 59% is by far the highest percentage of any major commuter rail system in the country. The proposed New Haven-Hartford-Springfield commuter rail line has a projected FRR of 11.2%. SLE’s FRR at 15.2% is heavily influenced by the fact that, at 30 miles (New Haven to Old Saybrook), SLE is just about the shortest commuter rail service in the nation.

As a point of reference, Connecticut’s municipal bus systems have FRRs of 15-35%

A weakness in using the FRR metric as the sole criteria to determine a transportation system’s financial effectiveness is that it does not take into account the initial capital investment required nor does it commonly include the cost of capital (interest costs) needed to sustain the infrastructure. For example, The New Haven-Hartford-Springfield Line has projected (FY 2025) operating expenses of $10 million and projected revenues of $1.2 million but the $300 million of projected capital costs has an additional annual cost of approximately $15 million just to pay the 5% interest rate. (That $300 million capital cost estimate is under strenuous review, in light of the massive cost estimate miscalculation by DOT on the New Haven maintenance facility.)

Other Connecticut Transportation Projects

Below is a list of state-wide transportation projects that are either underway or in planning. It is by no means an all-inclusive list but is meant to give the reader a feel for the vast array of major public transportation initiatives being undertaken by DOT.

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Compared to the other mass transportation projects, the cost to extend Shore Line East to New London is tiny - and ready to go.